Only 2 years left to avoid 1.5°C warming, scientists warn
What's the story
Climate scientists warn that the world has only two years left before it uses up the carbon budget needed to stay below 1.5°C of global warming. This budget refers to the maximum amount of carbon dioxide (C02) we can emit while still having a reasonable chance of meeting that target. If we exceed it, the risk of dangerous and irreversible climate impacts increases sharply. Staying within the 1.5°C limit is crucial to avoid worsening heatwaves, sea-level rise, and ecosystem collapse.
Emission limits
What is the carbon budget?
The carbon budget is a measure of how much CO2 can still be emitted by humanity while keeping the temperature target within reasonable limits. According to leading climate scientists, to have a 66% chance of staying below the 1.5°C target, emissions from 2025 onwards must be limited to 80 billion tons of CO2. This is an 80% reduction from levels in 2020.
Emission surge
Emissions hit a new record high in 2024
In 2024, emissions hit a new record high. At this rate, the 80 billion-tonne carbon budget would be exhausted within two years. The scientists also warned that lags in the climate system mean the 1.5°C limit would be breached a few years later. They stressed that every fraction of a degree of global heating increases human suffering and therefore, efforts to cut emissions must accelerate as quickly as possible.
Emission reduction
World on track for catastrophic rise of 2.7°C
The latest analysis shows global emissions would have to plummet toward zero within a few years to have any decent chance of keeping to the 1.5°C target. This seems extremely unlikely as emissions in 2024 rose yet again. The scientists also noted that currently, the world is on track for a catastrophic rise of 2.7°C in global heating.
Temperature targets
Limiting rise to 1.7°C more achievable
The analysis also found that limiting the rise to 1.7°C is more achievable. The carbon budget for a 66% chance of keeping below this target is 390 billion tons, which translates to about nine years at the current rate of emissions. "Under any course of action now, there is a very high chance we will reach and even exceed 1.5C and even higher levels of warming," said Prof Joeri Rogelj from Imperial College London.
Climate action
Countries must commit to significant emissions cuts
Rogelj stressed the need for countries to commit to significant emissions cuts at the upcoming UN Cop30 climate summit in November. He said every year is the best year to start being serious about emissions reduction because every fraction of warming we can avoid will result in less harm and suffering, particularly for poor and vulnerable populations.